David Moyes may want to keep Sven-Goran Eriksson on speed dial. Given what Eriksson’s Manchester City side went through last season and the schedule Everton was handed on Monday, the Swede’s insight on how to manage expectations may be needed.
When Eriksson was recruited by Thaksin Shinawatra last summer, it was considered somewhat of a pedestrian hire. Even after the former England national team coach revitalized the club’s roster with a series of young players signed during the summer transfer season, nobody considered Manchester City likely compete for a UEFA Cup spot. But after a smashing start that saw City win their first three matches, not even a fourth round loss to Arsenal could temper the City fans’ excitement. Expectations born from derby wins over Manchester United are hard to cool.
When three months later Manchester City remained near the top of the table, finishing November winning ten of their 14 fixtures (losing only three), the stories of City’s miraculous turnaround were too big to manage.
Manchester City spent the rest of the campaign sliding down the table. They would finish ninth in the league, winning a UEFA Cup spot via Fair Play. Eriksson was fired at the end of the season despite a debut that is a success by any reasonable standard. But the expectations of a hot start built on a soft early schedule did him in.
Of the eleven matches Manchester City got points from in the season’s first three months, only one was against a team which would qualify for European football: their derby win over United. When City’s schedule evened out, the team found their level. Over the final 24 fixtures, Eriksson and City got twelve points from European bound teams, including a win at Old Trafford. Despite improving the rate at which he was getting results against the league’s best, Eriksson could not save his job. He was unable to overcome new expectations.
Everton’s David Moyes is in no danger of suffering a similar fate. Entering his seventh full season with the Toffees, Moyes is one of the more respected managers in the league, coming off a season where his club pushed Liverpool for the league’s last Champions League spot before ultimately gaining the league’s only UEFA Cup spot that went to non-domestic cup winners (Fair Play excluded). Everton returning to their level after a fast start would not cost Moyes his job.
After a successful 2007-08 season, expectations are reasonable for the Toffees. Fans expect the club to compete for a UEFA Cup spot. They would love to continue to pressure (or even overtake) Liverpool, as they did last season. There is a resigned yet optimistic realism about the state of the club. Still, after last year’s success, a Manchester City-esque start to the season would be just the thing to set these expectations ablaze - convincing fans of a club that finished fifth last season that a step into the league’s elite was about to happen.
Looking at the Premiership fixture list that came out Monday, Moyes and Everton can expect those expectations to be raised. No club has an easier start than Everton. They open up the season at home against Blackburn before visiting West Brom in Round 2, then returning home for Round 3 against Portsmouth. The Toffees then go to Hull and Stoke before returning home for the Merseyside derby against Liverpool on September 27.
Last year, Everton failed to get a point from Liverpool in their match, but if they can come into the Round 6 meeting with five victories to start the season, their confidence will never be higher. Thanks to two manageable home games and three road matches against the recently promoted, fifteen points in their first five matches is a reasonable result.
Odds are one of these teams will bite the Toffees, but Everton could also bite Liverpool. If they do, it’s Manchester City all over again. Nothing told Manchester City fans to get excited like their Round 3 derby win over Manchester United. If Moyes can get his team one (or three) points from Liverpool, Everton will get Newcastle at Goodison in the seventh round staring at an undefeated start through the season’s first two months. Everton would be at the top of the table when they go to the Emirates to face Arsenal for the league lead.
At that point, Everton is likely to capitulate to Arsenal and leave the top of the Premiership. The following week, they will host a Manchester United team which, having a relatively tough schedule to beginning to their schedule (round 4 at Liverpool; round 5 at Chelsea), will be looking to keep pace with an Arsenal side that does not face another of the big four until November 8, when they host Manchester United eleven matches into the season. Until that point, Arsenal’s toughest match is a visit to Ewood Park to face a Blackburn team which, if they lose either David Bentley or Roque Santa Cruz, will look entirely different than the squad that finished seventh last season.
Until Arsenal visits Chelsea on the 29th of November, all of their tough contests are at home. In edition to the Everton and Manchester United match-ups, they host their derby with Tottenham on October 28 and face Aston Villa at the Emirates on November 15. With a back-loaded schedule, Arsenal could replicate last year’s start, running-out to an early Premiership lead. They stand to go to Stamford Bridge without a loss after fourteen matches.
This opening to the Premiership sets up the nightmare scenario for Gunner fans. As the schedule evens out, Arsenal faces the prospect of again letting their rivals catch them from behind. Nothing could be more torturous for a fan base that was tormented by the way last season played out.
The tail of their fixture list sees Arsenal visit Portsmouth, host Chelsea, and go to Manchester United before closing the season with Stoke at home. With that stretch coming in the middle of Champions League season, Arsenal will face another stomach wrenching finish - sitting at the top of the table, facing a series of fixtures where it would be no shame to drop points.
At the end of the 2008-09 Premiership campaign, the British press may be able to recycle the same stories they used last year. Arsenal could see Chelsea or Manchester United come from behind and catch them even if they avoid another dramatic slump. The schedule evening out could be enough to let their rivals pass them. And while the press analyzes whether Arsene Wenger’s side lacks the fortitude to overcome the order of their fixtures, stories replacing “Manchester City” with “Everton,” “Eriksson” with “Moyes” will be written to talk of Everton’s screaming start that faded into a tough competition with Aston Villa, Manchester City, Newcastle, Portsmouth and Tottenham for UEFA Cup spots.
Every club plays every other club twice: once at home; once away. Over the season’s ten months, it all evens out, but the order in which you face your toughest opponents can determine how your season is perceived.
Just ask Sven.