For those of us in the prediction and analysis game, this MLS season has been an absolute headache. At first, it seemed that the only thing certain was that home teams were dominant. Other than that, teams were remarkably inconsistent, looking like championship contenders one moment and Chivas USA circa 2005 the next. Then, last week, it was road teams who had the advantage, inclduing the Quakes who triumphed over the Colorado Rapids, who were leading the Western Conference and supposedly had altitude on their side. D.C. United and Houston, the two teams that everyone expected to compete for honors, are currently struggling the most. At this point, given all this unpredictability, it appears that we are all simply throwing random analyses and thoughts out there, and hoping somehow that we’re able to be on target. Then again, I think that that’s what makes MLS so great, despite its shortcomings. At the end of the day, the teams that do end up rising to the top are the ones who display the most heart. With talent levels being roughly equal, a premium is placed on chemistry and strategy.

Now onto the match. This is the first matchup for the new Quakes against the New York Red Bulls. This series has seen some wild ones in the past. I expect a bit of a scrappy match this time though, with New York suffering from injuries and the Quakes on the road for the second week in a row. The game will probably be claimed by a single goal either way and a draw is not unlikely.

Quakes/Red Bulls Pre-game Analysis 04/27/08

Goalkeepers: Quakes fans will recognize a familiar face between the opposition’s goalposts: John Conway. A back-up keeper for the Quakes for several years, he was supposed to take over in 2003 after Joe Cannon’s departure to the Rapids. However, an injury to Conway, and the emergence of a certain Pat Onstad who was brought in to help out, relegated him to the bench once again. Conway is a good keeper, but he has yet to prove that can he reach the spectacular or be great. With a sometimes shaky New York backline, Conway will have to be on his game. Look for Cannon to put in yet another solid performance, with a eye-catching save or two thrown in for good measure.

Advantage - Quakes

Red Bulls Forwards vs. Quakes Defense: Angel will miss this game due to injury, and Quakes fans can breathe a sigh of relief. No defense in the league relishes having to face Angel and Altidore together. With new acquisition Oscar Echeverry also out with an injury, it will likely be Altidore and Wolyniec leading the charge. Wolyniec is a solid, journeyman contributor but can be contained. Obviously, it is the rising star, Altidore, who is the main concern. He is just getting more dangerous as time goes on, and will likely leave for Europe in the summer. The Quakes defense looks to be getting more cohesive with each game, but will be sorely tested.

Advantage - Even

Quakes Forwards vs. Red Bulls Defense: New York uses a three-man backline, which can be exploited if any member of that trio slips up. The defense for this game will likely be Goldthwaite (another familiar face), Parke, and Leitch. Parke is a good defender and helps to anchor the defense. But the fact that Osorio continues to search for a left-sided defender shows that Goldthwaite is not his first choice, and Leitch certainly has his own question marks. Kamara scored his first goal, and will be playing now with confidence, heart, and determination. Glinton will likely start once again, and needs to prove himself or be replaced by Peguero. Speaking of which, look for Peguero to come off the substitute’s bench against his old team.

Advantage - Quakes

Midfield: New York uses a five man midfield, which normally might be a bit disconcerting, but the Quakes proved that they can hold their own against a crowded midfield last week. New York has been utilizing two defensive midfielders to break up attacks and control possession. For Sunday’s game, this duo may be Seth Stammler and Claudio Reyna. These two have far more experience than the young LaBrocca-DiRaimando pair the Quakes dominated in Colorado. Of the remaining Red Bulls midfield, who focus more on attack, only Van Den Bergh poses a real offensive threat. The Quakes midfield has been very impressive, and as with the rest of the team, is only getting better with each match. However, Ned Grabavoy suffered a knock in training. He is not on the injury list, though, so it looks he will start anyway. Will he be 100%? Ronnie O’Brien has been suffering from a sore knee, and will not be helped out by the horrible turf in New York. The last thing the Quakes need is for him to go down with a long-term injury. Look for him to start, and Salinas to get the nod early.

Advantage - Quakes

Coaches: The Quakes players are already buying into Yallop’s philosophy, and that is the best sign of all. Look for a hard-fought performance from the Quakes. Osorio, by contrast, is still struggling to get this Red Bulls team on a single cohesive page. The struggle of New York in its long, painful history hasn’t been so much about talent as about not having a philosophy, chemistry, and unity. Can Osorio finally change this long trend? He may, but this doesn’t look like the game to do it, and he is hampered mightily by injuries.

Advantage - Quakes

Intangibles: The biggest intangible is the turf surface the Quakes will be playing on in New York. Fortunately, they have been practicing on a turf field in Santa Clara, though it is supposed to be far more advanced than New York’s. The biggest concern is what that turf could do to O’Brien’s knee. Injuries have bit the Red Bulls hard, and taken a small bite out of Grabavoy and O’Brien. That’s why I see a close, hard-fought, scrappy game out there. It won’t be the prettiest.

Advantage - Even

Key Man: Kei Kamara

Thought I was going to say a Quakes defender, didn’t you? While the battle against Altidore will be important, the real key for me is the contest on the other side of the field. Kamara needs to take last week’s goal and turn it into a real fire in his belly. He has suffered the tragic death of his brother, and has said that he is using that as a real source of motivation. Kamara nees to make good runs, drawing Parke’s attention and pulling him out of the picture. This leaves Glinton, Grabavoy, O’Brien, or Guerrero to take advantage of an exposed Leitch or Goldthwaite. If the Quakes can sneak a goal or two early, then the Red Bulls will struggle mightily to get back into the game with its depleted corps.

Probable Line-up:

                   Glinton-Kamara

Guerrero-Corrales-Grabavoy-O’brien

Riley-Garcia-Cochrane-Hernandez

                          Cannon