Ronaldo takes a penalty kick that would yield his first goal of the season.

A late Wayne Rooney strike is all that separated the Bolton Wanderers from feeling legitimately wronged by the referee after Saturday’s trip to Old Trafford. The United forward’s late strike gave the hosts a 2-0 lead, padding a generously given penalty kick had (to that point) been the only scoring.

That kick, awarded as Bolton left back Jlloyd Samuel dispossessed a surging Cristiano Ronaldo, gave the Portuguese superstar his first goal of the season, capping his return to the starting XI with a spot on the scoresheet, deserving for the man who was the most influential player on the pitch.

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The prognosis on Cristiano Ronaldo’s return from ankle surgery has him out three months, putting him on the sidelines until October, or at least five weeks of the Premiership campaign. While Manchester United and their backers have had to deal with a summer of mental preparation for their leading goal scorer to be out on a permanent basis, now that some time out-of-the-team has been made official, we can start discussing in a meaningful way: How much of an effect will Ronaldo’s absence have on United’s lineup and prospects?

The clearest effect on United’s lineup will be the difference between Nani and Ronaldo. Nani is most likely to be slotted into Ronaldo’s spot, as his game and abilities most readily fit that role. The difference between the two is huge. Luis Nani is what Cristiano Ronaldo was four or five years ago, the difference between a talented and erratic player and somebody who is amongst the best in the world. For a team that won the league by only two points last season, it’s a difference that will have drastic implications. Chelsea was that runner-up, and Arsenal was only two points further back.

Over five weeks, could the difference between Ronaldo and Nani be four points? Normally I would say no, but in this case I think it might, considering the five weeks we are talking about. Manchester United’s schedule is a bit front-loaded. They open the season at home against Newcastle, a dangerous match but one I expect them to win regardless of Ronaldo’s availability. After that, they are on the road for three straight weeks against teams playing in Europe: Portsmorth; Chelsea; Liverpool. A team like Manchester United should be expected to get points in all those matches, but without Ronaldo it is going to take a supreme effort.

United schedule evens out over September and October. Ronaldo should be back for the club’s next big match at Arsenal on November 8. The condition he will be in at that time will be worth watching, but with him out of the lineup and that stretch of matches, it’s not difficult to argue that a stretch in which United would have gotten six or seven points could now yield only two or three (if that).

Ronaldo’s absence could cost them the league, especially if he is out for more than the first five weeks of the season. United may want to shift their focus this season towards Champions League, where the meaningful matches will come after the turn of the calendar.

While it does not affect United’s prospects for the season, there is an implicit fallacy in the reasoning above. In asking what the difference will be between Ronaldo and Nani, there was the assumption that Ronaldo would yield a performance comparable to last season’s. That would be a difficult feat were he healthy, and even if he were healthy, you have to wonder about his motivation in returning to a team where he does not want to play. I don’t want to underestimate Ronaldo’s professionalism, but 42 goals is a lot of ask of a man who is in an environment that’s unlikely to yield his best performances.

We should not be asking the difference between Ronaldo-at-his-best and Nani. When we think about what United will be missing, we should probably have something closer to 20 goals in mind. We should ask how they are going to replace him on set pieces - be he taking them or trying to get on the end of them, where he is United’s best player in the air.

United had a problem before Ronaldo had surgery, as they were faced with the task of replicating a championship won by two points on the back of a performance that would not be replicated. They may not have been the league favorites before the surgery, and they certainly should not be considered as such now.

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The level of anti-Cristiano Ronaldo sentiment should not be underestimated, though if you ever find yourself thinking it weak consider reports out of Italy saying Real Madrid goaltender Iker Casillas and Liverpool striker Fernando Torres are favorites for the Ballon d’Or.

The Ballon d’Or, or Golden Ball, is given by France Football to the player voted by media as the best football in the world for the preceding year. AC Milan’s Kaká is the current holder of the award and for much of the season Cristiano Ronaldo (left) was considered either the likely winner (by his supporters) or the favorite. The reports out of Italy, based on a research done on the award’s voters, now paints a different picture.

Cristiano Ronaldo’s accomplishments of the last year have been well documented. Fernando Torres also had had an incredible season, and although I seem to have slightly less regard for Casillas than most, people who know a lot more than I do about the sport have given him tremendous credit for Real Madrid’s success last season.

Beyond any accomplishments Torres or Casillas had during their club seasons, the capper to their Ballon D’Or resumé seems to be Spain winning Euro 2008. That is where I see the breakdown in logic behind their candidacies of the award.

If you grant that Ronaldo was generally considered to be the favorite for the Ballon d’Or at the end of the club season, the issue becomes whether the Euro 2008 performance of Torres or Casillas was sufficient to bridge the gap to Ronaldo. For now, let’s just set aside the idea of defining what that gap was, and let’s also grant the Ronaldo’s one goal in three games at Euro for Portugal did nothing to widen that gap.

Torres, until he scored the winning goal in the final, was generally derided for having a disappointing tournament, a view I completely disagree with (I named him to my best XI for the tournament). He was being substituted in each match, and while some questioned whether that was wise of Spain coach Luis Aragones, others advocated giving Daniel Guiza, Torres’s replacement, a greater role. While Torres may have decreased the distance between him and Ronaldo, this is not a performance that should seal a Ballon d’Or.

Then there is Casillas (left), who I also named to my Euro 2008 XI. Casillas’s shining moment was the penalty shootout win over Italy, but beyond that he was untested. The ten players Spain had in front of him made it a rather boring tournament for Spain’s captain, the pre-kicks Italy match included. Was that performance against Italy enough to bridge his gap to Ronaldo?

Whether you think Torres or Casillas deserve the award, you should allow that the shift in opinion that has occurred over the last two months may be more about Ronaldo than what either of these players has done. Perhaps people have grown weary of the Real Madrid speculation. That’s understandable. Perhaps the voters look unfavorably on his style and the various idiosyncrasies of his game. That is also understandable, but it is not fair to use these things as reason for an abrupt change regarding the Ballon d’Or. Ronaldo, being the front-runner for this award for so long, has been analyzed and scrutinized in a way Torres and Casillas have been able to avoid. To withhold a vote for him because of that scrutiny can not be fair unless you wait six months to cast the vote and, during that time, hold Torres and Casillas to the same standards.

That basic unfairness is not the only problem I have with the Casillas and Torres candidacies. How did these two players get singled out to benefit from Ronaldo’s falling star? It’s an easy question to answer: They are the players from the Spain team who best fit the standards for this award. That reasoning, however, ignores a Spain squad who’s defining trait was team-wide success - a kind of success that does not translate onto this kind of individual award. How can you single out Torres or Casillas when you consider how Marcos Senna, Sergio Ramos, David Villa, Carles Puyol, and David Silva played?

And why is this being restricted to only Spanish players? If we are going to reconsider Ronaldo’s claim to the award, we should not let the achievement of a Spain side ill-suited towards individual recognition limit the candidates. When you compare Casillas’s resume to that of Manchester United goalie Edwin van der Sar, who looks better? Both won their club league, and while Casillas’s health during the season is a point in his favor (van der Sar missed time during Manchester United’s season with injuries), van der Sar and club had more competition (from Chelsea) for their title. Van der Sar also had a much harder time of it in the Champions League than Casillas had in Euro 2008. Until the Netherlands was eliminated from Euro, van der Sar had outplayed Casillas and been one of the best goaltenders in Euro.

Why isn’t Michael Ballack being considered? He was Chelsea and Germany’s best player and was a decisive force whenever he was on the pitch. Ballack continuously scored big goals down the stretch of Chelsea’s Premiership and Champions League campaigns, had another huge goal in Euro 2008 against Portugal, and established himself as a fixture in any best midfielder in the world conversation.

Van der Sar. Ballack. Casillas or Torres. It doesn’t matter. If the stories are true, this award has become less about who will win it than making sure Cristiano Ronaldo doesn’t win.

I hope after the award is given, this article looks reactionary; however, I doubt I would have bothered writing it if I thought Ronaldo was still the favorite to win the award.

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It took only a few hours for the Cristiano Ronaldo speculation to start back up.

After Portugal lost 3-2 to Germany in the Euro 2008 quarterfinals, quotes from Ronaldo rekindling his transfer saga started surfacing. Though the Manchester United star remained coy in interviews given to Spanish and Portuguese press, strong language than his pre-Euro statements further hints at a desire to leave the Old Trafford.

“The possibilities to go are great,” Ronaldo said. “In the next few days we will see if we can arrive at an agreement.”

Ronaldo said it will be at least 48 hours before he makes his desires known. Real Madrid have made the Golden Shoe winner their top summer priority. Speculation on how much they are willing to offer Manchester United as a transfer fee ranges from £50 million to £70 million, with players like Sergio Ramos and Robinho being mentioned as possible makeweights. Madrid is also set to offer Ronaldo a salary fo £200,000 per week, the largest contract ever given to a professional soccer player.

Ronaldo, who said that he will be speaking to Manchester United over the next couple of days, insisted that he has yet to make his decision, though he conceded “the people around me know what I want.”

Various sources within the British press report that a decision to try and move to Real Madrid has already been made. Real Madrid representative deny this.

“We’re waiting for Cristiano to make a statement,” explains Miguel Angel Arroyo, general director at Real Madrid. “Whenever he says he wants to play for Real Madrid, there would be conversations” with Manchester United.

Ronaldo’s statements come one day after the Glazer family, through unnamed sources, would support Sir Alex Ferguson’s decision to bench the Portuguese star should he fail to report to the team in July. This possibility has been born of United’s insistence their star is not for sale, not even for the £70 million figure.

While that figure, Real’s contract offer, and Ronaldo’s expressed desire to go to Madrid could pressure Ferguson into a deal, Ronaldo’s agent Jorge Mendes is said to have advised his client against handing in a formal transfer request.

The the interim, Ronaldo said he will be undergoing surgery for a foot ailment.

“I’m going to have an operation now,” he told the media, when asked what he plans to do next. “I have had a small problem for about three months.

Ronaldo was scoreless against Germany in Portugal’s loss, though he did contribute to the team’s first goal. German goalkeeper Jens Lehman made a good save on a Ronaldo shot but could not control a rebound that went to striker Nuno Gomes who put the ball in the net. The Portugal captain’s goal brought the German lead to 2-1, with Bastian Schweinsteiger and Miroslav Klose scoring within four minutes of each other starting in the 22nd minute. Klose goal was a header off a set piece where Ronaldo failed to mark the Bayern Munich striker.

A mildly controversial Michael Ballack goal gave Germany a 3-1 lead in the 62nd minute. The Chelsea star’s header from a set piece was made possible as he gave a push in the back of club teammate Paulo Ferreira, allowing him room to score the winning goal. FC Porto’s Hélder Postiga put home a Nani cross with three minutes left in regular time, but Portugal never threatened again.

It’s only taken three days for the hiring at Stamford Bridge to set the British soccer media ablaze, so much so that, for the first time in its short history, Premiership News and Rumors concentrates on one club:  Chelsea FC.

While new Chelsea boss Luiz Felipe Scolari guides the Portuguese national team team through Euro 2008, the rest of the soccer-following world has volunteered to help him figure out how to spend owner Roman Abramovich’s fortune, from which £100 million might be allocated towards this summer’s transfer budget. All prominent targets from Scolari’s 2002 World Cup winning side from (Brazil) and the current Portuguese national team have had Chelsea move to the top of their likely destination lists; most prominently, Barcelona’s Deco and Ronaldinho.

After Scolari was named Chelsea boss earlier this week, speculation of Deco’s potential move from Barcelona exploded. Before that, speculation had Deco’s list of potential targets down to two: Chelsea and Inter Milan. Inter had been thought the favorite because of the hiring of Jose Mourinho, with whom Deco won the Champions League at FC Porto in 2004. With Scolari now announced at Chelsea, Stamford Bridge is now thought to be the favorite to land the Portuguese international, with some reports saying a deal is already done. Deco and his agent deny such a deal is in place, with the midfielder now worried that Barcelona may be asking too much as a transfer fee. “At my age you cannot ask too much for me,” said the 30-year-old, who was reported close to a deal at Inter before the Scolari hiring. That deal, said to be for around £10 million, was partially scuttled by Barça increasing their asking price. Deco’s price is now said to be closer to £15 million, with a high figure of £20 million also reported.

Deco’s teammate at Barcelona, Ronaldinho, had been speculated to Manchester City before Scolari’s hiring, but now that the man who was in charge of his 2002 World Cup winning team is at Chelsea, Ronaldinho has said “it would be a pleasure to cross paths with him again.” Part of what had made Ronaldinho’s move to Manchester City plausible (beyond Thaksin Shinawatra’s money) was the lack of interest from elite clubs. With Scolari now at Chelsea, that lack of interest may be no more. Shinawatra has been confident that City will acquire Ronaldinho, ready to pay a £20 million fee to Barça.

One other Barça player, Cameroon international Samuel Eto’o, has been linked with Chelsea, part of what might be a package deal with Deco. Eto’o has also been linked with Inter and AC Milan, the three teams most prominent in the bidding for Chelsea’s Didier Drogba. Drogba, however, in the wake of Scolari’s hiring, has reiterated his contract with Chelsea that runs through 2010, indicating he is willing to stay at The Bridge. If Drogba does indeed want to stay - a pledge he has notably come just short of making - Eto’o looks more likely to move to the Serie A.

One other current Chelsea player leaning back towards the club is center back Ricardo Carvalho. In what same have labeled as the most positive effect of Scolari’s announcement, the Portuguese international backed off quotes from early in the week pushing a reunion with Jose Mourinho. The hiring of Carvalho’s national team coach could be enough to see the club’s player of the year stay.

Another current member of the club Scolari’s hoping to keep is Frank Lampard. Lampard was another, along with Carvalho and Drogba, set to be targeted by Mourinho, but Scolari is said to be keen on keeping the midfielder, ready to make him the club’s highest paid player at £150,000 per week. The stabilizing factor of such a prominent hire may be a deciding factor for the England international, who is heading into the final year of a contract that he can buy-out for £7 million.

Real Madrid’s Robinho has also seen his name linked with Chelsea since the hiring of Scolari, though any club’s deal for the 24-year-old Brazilian is unlikely to be completed until the Cristiano Ronaldo affair ends. Robinho, it is rumored, will be proposed as a makeweight in the deal that would send Ronaldo from Manchester United to Real Madrid. Whatever odds you put on that happening, Real Madrid are unlikely to off-load the young winger when he can be used to help lure his superstar replacement. Should Madrid not acquire Ronaldo or Robinho not be makeweight in that deal, the amount speculated for a Chelsea bid is £28 million.

And no transfer speculation report would be complete without a mention of the man of the hour, David Villa. The Valencia striker has been the star of Euro 2008 over Spain’s first two matches, scoring four goals, including a hat trick in the Spaniards’ opening match against Russia. Already carrying a high price tag after scoring 18 goals in 29 games for Valencia, Villa was set to be sold to help Valencia balance their books, with Liverpool loosely mentioned as an interested party. But with Villa’s stellar performance at Euro, Rafa Benitez and his tight transfer budget might be priced out of the market, with the 26-year-old striker approaching a realm in which only the Chelseas of the world can consistently play. Villa will also see his priced pushed by La Liga giants Real Madrid and Barcelona, both of whom will have to deal with calls to acquire the available Spanish hero. However, in a ploy seemingly to drive up the price, Valencia coach Unai Emery now says Villa is not available.

If Villa truly is off-the-market, he will join a growing and distinguished list of names linked with Chelsea that have been affirmed unavailable by their owning clubs. AC Milan has warned off Chelsea regarding star midfielder Kaka amidst rumors Scolari may seek out the Brazilian. Liverpool continues to say Feranando Torres is unavailable, with Chelsea being the main target of those comments, while Bayern Munich says they will not sell Frank Ribery.

One of the more bazaar pieces of speculation holds right back Jose Bosingwa, who was confirmed in mid-May as switching from FC Porto to Chelsea, was actually a Scolari signing, with the Scolari authorizing the signing of the Portugal international almost one month before he was announced hired at Stamford Bridge. These are the type of rumors you get when the British media is handed the story of an elite club hiring a high profile coach and allocating him a seemingly unlimited amount of transfer money. You get conspiracy theories and, as seen above, links between club and almost every high-profile player in the world. Thankfully, no rumors of Portuguese international Cristiano Ronaldo’s move to Stamford Bridge have surfaced.

Yet.

Cristiano Ronaldo broke his silence on rumors he will leave Manchester United for Real Madrid, saying he wants to play for Real, but only if Real is willing to pay his current team’s asking price.  And with that the Portuguese star went silent again, saying he will not speak about a potential transfer until after Euro 2008.

The statements have been seen as staking an inconclusive middle ground, affirming opinions expressed by Ronaldo before the Champions League final that he envisions and eventual move to La Liga.  However, Ronaldo is still yet to say when he would want such a move to take place.  His statement of yesterday pushes the issue into the hands of Manchester United and Real Madrid.

Earlier this week, Ronaldo rekindled speculation on a potential transfer by saying he would speak on the issue on Thursday or Friday.  This came after a tumultuous week in which Old Trafford and the Santiago Bernabeu fired salvos at each other, with Sir Alex Ferguson dropping hints of a FIFA referral, before Madrid seemed to calm the fires by saying a transfer was unlikely.

Yesterday, Ronaldo made a transfer a little more likely by reiterating he wants to play for the Spanish champions.

“I’d like to play for Real Madrid but only if it’s true they are ready to pay what Manchester United ask of them,” he told Brazilian website Terra, outlining the conditions of a potential move.  “However, it does not depend on me.”

Ronaldo’s comments have started another round for feverish reporting.  In the moments after the quotes were released, a Portuguese paper published quotes from Ronaldo’s mother saying her son would be staying at Manchester United this season.  Madrid striker and former Ronaldo team mate Ruud Van Nistelrooy said he expected and supported the move.  United star center back Rio Ferdinand expressed his trepidation of losing the club’s star, and reports of Sir Alex Ferguson being banned by Ronaldo from the Portugal training facility while seeking a meeting were published in a tabloid.  Real president Ramon Calderon expressed honor from Ronaldo’s claims while United legend Bryan Robson came out encouraging the star to stay with his current club.

All the while, Ronaldo and his Portugal team prepare for a European championship as one of the favorites.  Though his claim that he will not be willing to speak to the media on this matter until after the competition hints that a decision is not imminent, expect the tabloid speculation and  rumors to persist over the next month.