| The 2008-09 Season
Our prediction sees teams being cast into four distinct groups.
At the top, you have the “Big Four,” as they have come to be called, though unlike the last couple of seasons, each of Manchester United, Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool have a legitimate chance at winning the league. We are casting Liverpool in fourth, but it is easy to imagine scenarios where they can transcend the eight point gap we have between them and Manchester United.
Behind them, there are the five teams which will battle for the remaining European spots. The UEFA Cup qualifying spots could extend beyond seventh place (depending on how the FA Cup is resolved), but seventh will be the magic place that puts a club in the conversation. For those three spots behind the title contenders, Aston Villa, Everton, Tottenham and Portsmouth will contend, with Gareth Southgate’s upstart Middlesbrough side ready to slide into Europe, should clubs slip.
The no-man’s land of the table in the European-structure is that are between the European qualifying positions and relegation. For the recently promoted West Brom, being in that no-man’s land is a blessing. They should avoid relegation. For team’s like Manchester City and Blackburn, it is a disappointing place, with those clubs having competed for Europe last season. They will be joined by Newcastle, Wigan, West Ham and Sunderland, all of whom should secure their 2009-10 Premiership spots before the league’s final round.
The teams who will be battling relegation are predictable. Fulham and Bolton barely escaped the drop last season and have done little to substantially improve their chances. It is Bolton, however, that should be particularly scared, because although they may resemble Fulham at the season’s onset, their roster bares fewer places for surprise and improvement than the Cottagers.
Stoke and Hull will not be as fortunate as the Championship’s other promoted team. Stoke has the firepower to conceivably avoid relegation, but they are still favorites for the drop. Hull, however, may be Derby-esque. Our simulations do not see them as that bad, but if they get off to a poor start, they may resign themselves to anchoring the table.
Title Contenders
Four teams have good chances of walking away with the Premiership, but two teams from the group distinguish themselves. Manchester United, the most loved and most hated team in the world, will be near the top at season’s end. They have too much depth and talent to drop very far. Chelsea is thought to be their biggest threat after finishing last season only two spots behind (and setting a record for most points garnered without winning the league), but United’s biggest threat should come from the club that finished another two points back.
Arsenal led the Premiership for most of the season, but injuries and inexperience saw them collapse and finish third in the league. Yet, the Gunners finished only four points back of United. Expect Arsene Wenger, with more players and having given his young club a year’s worth of experience, to put Arsenal in the thick of title contention.
Rafa Benitez has done a good job in giving Liverpool the talent and depth to maintain pace at the top. They will contend for every honor.
Battling for Europe
At most, three teams from a strong quartet of Aston Villa, Everton, Tottenham and Portsmouth will qualify for the UEFA Cup.
Aston Villa looks to be strongest and could threaten any of the Big Four who might stumble. Everton returns all the key components of one of the league’s best defenses. If David Moyes can acquire some depth, they will again challenge for fifth place.
Tottenham and Portsmouth are each wild cards. Who knows how the revolving door will swing a White Hart Lane, but if it stays shut (with Dimitar Berbatov staying in London), Spurs will be a force. Harry Redknapp brought Peter Crouch to Pompey, and if Crouch shows the same desire he did at the end of last season, Pompey will transcend this expectation.
The surprise in this group will be Gareth Southgate’s Middlesbrough. They gave even the best clubs trouble last year (see the late season against Manchester United). This season, they will have a year’s seasoning augmented by a full season of Afonso Alves. If Tottenham sells and Everton does not buy, Southgate could qualify his team for Europe.
Racing to Beat the Drop
As with Derby last season, there is another purely sacrificial lamb. Feel for Hull City, who finally made it to the top flight of English football. It will be a long season for the Tigers.
Stoke, however, could threaten, though they do not necessarily have the talent to stay. They need to go for wins rather than ties and put themselves in position to benefit from the stumblings of a couple of returning clubs.
If that happens, the two clubs to drop should be Fulham and Bolton. The talent on each of these teams in little better than the best teams in the Championship, and both Gary Megson and Roy Hodgson will have to scrap to keep their teams up.
The League in the World
The 2007-08 season was a watershed campaign for the Premiership, with a dramatic league race, a team winning the Champions League, more prominent foreign players raising the league’s profile leading to an increased worldwide following. It is the most popular soccer league in the world, and 2008-09 should do nothing to change that. We are predicting an upturn in scoring thanks to a continued influx of skill. That combined with what could be wide-open races for all seven European spots could make this season as memorable as the last. |
Odds - Winning the League
The teams who won the league at least one time during our simluations.
| Manchester United |
43.5% |
| Arsenal |
31.2% |
| Chelsea |
13.4% |
| Liverpool |
9.8% |
| Aston Villa |
1.6% |
| Everton |
0.3% |
| Portsmouth |
0.2% |
ASR’s EPL Player of the Year

Cesc Fabregas, M, Arsenal
Other Contenders
Fernando Torres, F, Liverpool
John Terry, D, Chelsea
Ashley Young, M, Aston Villa
Jermaine Defoe, F, Portsmouth
ASR’s Team of the Season

| G |
Tim Howard, Everton |
| LB |
Gael Clichy, Arsenal |
| CB |
John Terry, Chelsea |
| CB |
Rio Ferdinand, Manchester United |
| RB |
Bacary Sagna, Arsenal |
| MF |
Ashley Young, Aston Villa |
| MF |
Cesc Fabregas, Arsenal |
| MF |
Steven Gerrard, Liverpool |
| MF |
Cristiano Ronaldo, Manchester United |
| F |
Jermaine Defoe, Portsmouth |
| F |
Fernando Torres, Liverpool |
| Substitutes: Petr Cech, G, Chelsea; Patrice Evra, DF, Manchester United; Nemanja Vidic, DF, Manchester United; Javier Mascherano, MF, Liverpool; Stewart Downing, MF, Middlesbrough; Robin van Persie, F, Arsenal; Carlos Tevez, F, Manchester United |
Cracking the Cartel
Which teams, beyond the Big Four, stand the best chance of securing a Champions League birth.
| Aston Villa |
35.5% |
| Everton |
6.9% |
| Tottenham |
4.3% |
| Portsmouth |
3.6% |
| Middlesbrough |
1.8% |
Leading Goal Scorers
ASR’s predicting the following players to find the net most often.
| LIV |
Torres, Fernando |
20 |
| POR |
Defoe, Jermaine |
16 |
| MU |
Tevez, Carlos |
16 |
| MU |
Rooney, Wayne |
16 |
| MID |
Alves, Afonso |
16 |
| EVR |
Yakubu |
16 |
| ARS |
Adebayor, Emmanuel |
16 |
| BLA |
Santa Cruz, Roque |
15 |
Odds - Relegation
Teams who were relegated more than 1% of our similuations.
| Hull City |
90.3% |
| Stoke City |
53.2% |
| Bolton |
45.1% |
| Fulham |
28.4% |
| Sunderland |
16.5% |
| Blackburn |
16.2% |
| Manchester City |
13.5% |
| West Ham |
11.4% |
| West Brom |
10.4% |
| Wigan |
7.4% |
| Newcastle |
4.4% |
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