The prognosis on Cristiano Ronaldo’s return from ankle surgery has him out three months, putting him on the sidelines until October, or at least five weeks of the Premiership campaign. While Manchester United and their backers have had to deal with a summer of mental preparation for their leading goal scorer to be out on a permanent basis, now that some time out-of-the-team has been made official, we can start discussing in a meaningful way: How much of an effect will Ronaldo’s absence have on United’s lineup and prospects?
The clearest effect on United’s lineup will be the difference between Nani and Ronaldo. Nani is most likely to be slotted into Ronaldo’s spot, as his game and abilities most readily fit that role. The difference between the two is huge. Luis Nani is what Cristiano Ronaldo was four or five years ago, the difference between a talented and erratic player and somebody who is amongst the best in the world. For a team that won the league by only two points last season, it’s a difference that will have drastic implications. Chelsea was that runner-up, and Arsenal was only two points further back.
Over five weeks, could the difference between Ronaldo and Nani be four points? Normally I would say no, but in this case I think it might, considering the five weeks we are talking about. Manchester United’s schedule is a bit front-loaded. They open the season at home against Newcastle, a dangerous match but one I expect them to win regardless of Ronaldo’s availability. After that, they are on the road for three straight weeks against teams playing in Europe: Portsmorth; Chelsea; Liverpool. A team like Manchester United should be expected to get points in all those matches, but without Ronaldo it is going to take a supreme effort.
United schedule evens out over September and October. Ronaldo should be back for the club’s next big match at Arsenal on November 8. The condition he will be in at that time will be worth watching, but with him out of the lineup and that stretch of matches, it’s not difficult to argue that a stretch in which United would have gotten six or seven points could now yield only two or three (if that).
Ronaldo’s absence could cost them the league, especially if he is out for more than the first five weeks of the season. United may want to shift their focus this season towards Champions League, where the meaningful matches will come after the turn of the calendar.
While it does not affect United’s prospects for the season, there is an implicit fallacy in the reasoning above. In asking what the difference will be between Ronaldo and Nani, there was the assumption that Ronaldo would yield a performance comparable to last season’s. That would be a difficult feat were he healthy, and even if he were healthy, you have to wonder about his motivation in returning to a team where he does not want to play. I don’t want to underestimate Ronaldo’s professionalism, but 42 goals is a lot of ask of a man who is in an environment that’s unlikely to yield his best performances.
We should not be asking the difference between Ronaldo-at-his-best and Nani. When we think about what United will be missing, we should probably have something closer to 20 goals in mind. We should ask how they are going to replace him on set pieces - be he taking them or trying to get on the end of them, where he is United’s best player in the air.
United had a problem before Ronaldo had surgery, as they were faced with the task of replicating a championship won by two points on the back of a performance that would not be replicated. They may not have been the league favorites before the surgery, and they certainly should not be considered as such now.
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